TEAM

Paul Pannkuk
During his fifteen years at Morgan Stanley, Paul managed a team of seven economists on three continents with responsibility for assessing the economic, financial and political risk associated with 85 countries and more than 250 regional and municipal governments and sovereign owned- or supported-banks and utilities. 

His group worked extensively with investment bankers to identify public- and private-sector capital markets financing opportunities in key client countries, and worked with finance ministries and central banks on policy issues designed to enhance investor confidence and improve public credit ratings. 

Paul’s early warning calls were credited with saving the firm significant losses in countries including Turkey (1994), Mexico (1994), Thailand, Indonesia and Korea (1997), Russia (1998), Brazil (1999), and Argentina (2001).

Previously, in his thirty year career, Paul worked for the Foreign Affairs Committee of the US House of Representatives, the US Treasury Department and the World Bank.  In New York, he served as senior economist covering Eastern Europe and Asia at Chemical Bank before moving to Standard & Poor’s where he conducted the due diligence and research for the first public ratings of India, the People’s Republic of China, Korea, Malaysia, and Indonesia. 

Paul holds a B.A. in political science and economics and an M.A. in development economics from Drake University.

Manish Thakur
Manish has lived and worked in New York, London and Hong Kong for nearly 20 years as an investment banker, principal investor and global strategist.

He is a founding Managing Partner and CEO of Hudson Fairfax Group, an India investment firm focused on aerospace & defense, and which previously also ran an Indian long-short equity hedge fund. During his career, Manish has worked in corporate finance and mergers & acquisitions at such firms as Merrill Lynch, SG Cowen and HSBC, with a particular focus on Emerging Markets, Asia, and most recently India.

Manish has started or built a number of successful business practices both in investment banking and investment management, with a proven track record of winning new clients or investors and executing mandates in countries ranging from Indonesia to Mexico. Outside of the investment industry, Manish was CFO and ran business development for Ellipso, a global satellite venture backed by the Boeing Company.

Manish serves as National Security Coordinator for USINPAC, a Washington-based Indian American political action committee, and Chairman of the Sovereign Wealth Committee of the Hedge Fund Association.

Helena Hessel
Helena brings thirty years of experience assessing economic, financial, regulatory and political risk in over 50 countries across regions.  Areas of expertise include country risk analysis (differentiating country risk and sovereign risk), sovereign interference analysis in structured finance, banking system risk, and monitoring international capital flows as they effect the development of emerging countries capital markets.

Helena spent most of her career at Standard & Poor‘s, followed by tenure as a Managing Director of the Financial Guarantee Insurance Company.  There she was responsible for the activities of the Emerging Countries’ Origination Group, which assessed the risk of guaranteeing various structured transactions.  

In 2008-2009, Helena worked as an independent consultant, conducting workshops on the Russian economy and preparation of training courses on bank analysis and sovereign risk.   

Helena has a PhD in economics from Columbia University.

Pablo Scheffel
Pablo has over 15 years experience in sovereign, municipals and utilities risk across the globe.  During his ten years at Standard & Poor’s he conducted due diligence and research for the ratings of Australia, New Zealand, Spain, and Portugal and for their sovereign supported and municipal entities. He was also responsible for the first public ratings of various French departments and regions.

Later, he was responsible for due diligence the analysis of various utilities both in Europe and Latin America. He spearheaded the rating of many privatized and government owned utilities, in Chile, Argentina and other countries in the region. He supervised a team of analysts that were responsible for the initial ratings of the main utilities in the region, including  Endesa, Eneresis and Chilgener in Chile, Central Puerto, Central Costanera and the gas transportation and distribution companies in Argentina, and Electrobras in Brazil.

Pablo has an MA in International Affairs from Georgetown University and worked on a PHD at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies where he focused on International Economics and Latin American studies.

Pablo is located in Buenos Aries.

Lawrence Krohn
Larry, who is based in New York, is a Visiting Associate Professor of International Economics at Tufts’ Fletcher School.  He has also taught economics at Columbia University, Oberlin College, the Laval University School of Business, the University of Quebec, and at NYU.

After serving in the US Peace Corps in Tunisia 1969 -1971, Larry studied economics at Columbia and embarked on an academic career, before turning to financial services (with the Royal Bank of Canada) in 1983. His career in the global banking and securities industry, which extends to the present, has been spent advising portfolio managers on domestic and international equity and debt investments. In so doing, he has traveled extensively to meet with clients and to gather information from government officials, central bankers and private sector decision-makers. He has held senior positions at Lehman Brothers, UBS, DLJ, ING and Standard Bank.

The geographical range of his experience is extensive, including (at various times) Western Europe, East Asia and Africa. Since 1992, most of his research endeavors -- and since 2005 his teaching as well -– have been focused on Latin America.

Larry holds a BS from the Wharton School (University of Pennsylvania) and a PhD in economics from Columbia University.

R. Barry Spaulding
Barry’s unique background includes more than 30 years of China specific business experience; including management of the first American bank office in Beijing and leadership of Chase Manhattan Bank’s New York China Group, which acted as consultant for many of the early American joint ventures in the PRC.

In addition, as head of New York State’s International Division in the Cuomo administration, he managed a global network of offices for New York State involved in trade and investment promotion efforts in China and around the world. 

As an independent consultant for 15 years, he has managed a range of projects for US multinational and PRC entities including the Jiangsu Province Commission of Economic Relations and Trade, the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office and Suzhou New District High Tech Zone. Understanding issues faced by investors in China from both the Western and Chinese perspectives provides deep insights useful in analysis of investment, regulatory and political risk. 

Barry received a BA in Asian Studies and Political Science from University of California, Santa Barbara, with a year of study at Chinese University of Hong Kong, a Master of International Affairs in International Finance and Economic Development from Columbia University’s School of International Affairs.